Lawsuit Risk Index — Methodology
The Grow Wild Agency Lawsuit Risk Index is a 0–100 score that estimates the relative ADA web-accessibility litigation exposure for a given website. It combines nine input variables — industry, jurisdiction, revenue, site size, public-entity status, HHS funding, overlay-widget presence, accessibility-statement posture, and time since last audit — weighted by 2025 federal-filing data (Seyfarth Shaw; EcomBack; UsableNet).
Input variables & weights
| Variable | Max weight | Source / rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Industry | 12 | EcomBack 2025 distribution (retail ~69%, F&B ~21%) |
| State / jurisdiction | 10 | Seyfarth Shaw 2025 federal filings by state |
| Annual revenue | 9 | Proxy for plaintiff incentive (larger settlement potential) |
| Site size (pages) | 7 | Larger surface area → more likely to contain a barrier |
| Public-entity status (Title II) | 9 | DOJ 2024 rule + April 2026 IFR deadlines |
| HHS funding status | 9 | HHS Section 504 web rule (May 11, 2026 — NOT extended) |
| Overlay widget installed | 10 | EcomBack H1 2025: 22.64% of sued sites had an overlay |
| Accessibility statement | 5 | Mitigation signal in demand-letter settlement negotiations |
| Time since last audit | 9 | Proxy for current technical posture |
Risk bands
- Low (0–25): no overlay, recent audit, low-risk industry & jurisdiction.
- Medium (26–50): multiple elevated factors but mitigations in place.
- High (51–75): profile matches typical 2025 ADA defendants. Expected demand-letter / settlement range $25K–$100K.
- Critical (76–100): highest-exposure cohort — class-action precedents ($5–6M settlements) apply.
Limitations
- The index is a self-reported posture estimate, not a forensic legal analysis.
- State court filings (especially CA Unruh) are not directly counted; only federal filings.
- The model does not capture demand-letter-only matters that never reach docket.
- Industries with structurally similar exposure (e.g., e-commerce and food) may be over- or under-weighted in edge cases.
Use the tool at /tools/lawsuit-risk-calculator. Underlying lawsuit dataset: /laws/lawsuit-statistics-2025.